Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.788096 0.905846 1.031504 1.175172 1.334467 1.505257 1.701787
2025-02-23 0.584765 0.735756 0.908301 1.118520 1.366093 1.646737 1.987181
2025-03-02 0.426158 0.588092 0.786281 1.043116 1.363277 1.745219 2.230936
2025-03-09 0.329901 0.499071 0.720446 1.024575 1.424033 1.922894 2.584088
2025-03-16 0.251110 0.418305 0.652679 0.993975 1.465577 2.080656 2.927819
2025-03-23 0.205376 0.375058 0.628718 1.018152 1.580984 2.343161 3.427793
2025-03-30 0.153300 0.310984 0.564298 0.976203 1.600534 2.479635 3.773083
2025-04-06 0.118050 0.266006 0.521003 0.958854 1.652369 2.664027 4.197416
2025-04-13 0.089161 0.224688 0.475968 0.931808 1.685798 2.823898 4.598429
2025-04-20 0.071862 0.200952 0.456708 0.943722 1.779980 3.079364 5.153878
2025-04-27 0.056315 0.176128 0.430618 0.939830 1.847550 3.298783 5.669663
2025-05-04 0.045536 0.158715 0.415438 0.953054 1.944273 3.569635 6.279148
2025-05-11 0.035593 0.140341 0.395881 0.957969 2.031952 3.840140 6.917852
2025-05-18 0.025912 0.118234 0.363067 0.931909 2.061920 4.019150 7.425008
2025-05-25 0.017626 0.095553 0.322788 0.883527 2.045047 4.118091 7.809773
2025-06-01 0.013173 0.083285 0.305071 0.880479 2.113654 4.368092 8.456931
2025-06-08 0.009395 0.070761 0.282976 0.863661 2.153064 4.569181 9.033550
2025-06-15 0.007586 0.065700 0.280889 0.893619 2.290060 4.953994 9.942553
2025-06-22 0.005067 0.054281 0.255632 0.862277 2.295939 5.099099 10.445105
2025-06-29 0.003541 0.046604 0.239715 0.851603 2.344271 5.325505 11.100568
2025-07-06 0.002341 0.039110 0.221422 0.830918 2.367829 5.505451 11.681215
2025-07-13 0.001743 0.035420 0.216023 0.844914 2.470453 5.843174 12.559779
2025-07-20 0.001205 0.031040 0.206048 0.843822 2.537795 6.115018 13.329577